Sviluppo 3.0

PECHINO – Fino alla rivoluzione industriale il reddito pro capite risultava piuttosto ristagnante in tutto il mondo. Ma la ricchezza ha poi iniziato a diversificarsi rapidamente ed alcuni paesi occidentali industrializzati hanno raggiunto in poco tempo la predominanza politica ed economica a livello mondiale. Pochi anni fa, prima dello scoppio della crisi finanziaria nel 2008, è diventato chiaro che il panorama economico globale si era nuovamente spostato. Fino al 2000, il G7 rappresentava circa due terzi del PIL globale, oggi, la Cina e pochi altri grandi paesi in via di sviluppo sono diventati i leader della crescita mondiale.

Tuttavia, sebbene si parli di un’Asia in rapida crescita, negli ultimi decenni solo poche economie dell’Asia orientale sono passate da redditi bassi a redditi alti. Inoltre, tra il 1950 ed il 2008, solo 28 economie al mondo, e solo 12 tra le economie non occidentali, sono state in grado di ridurre il divario con gli Stati Uniti in termini di reddito pro capite di 10 o più punti percentuali. Nel frattempo, più di 150 paesi sono rimasti intrappolati in uno status di reddito medio-basso. La riduzione del divario con i paesi industrializzati ad alto reddito rimane quindi la sfida principale dello sviluppo a livello mondiale. 

Nel periodo post-coloniale, dopo la Seconda Guerra Mondiale, il paradigma di sviluppo predominante era una forma di strutturalismo mirato a modificare la struttura industriale dei paesi poveri affinché rispecchiassero quella dei paesi ad alto reddito. Gli strutturalisti suggerivano ai governi di adottare delle strategie di sostituzione delle importazioni, utilizzando l’intervento del settore pubblico per superare i “fallimenti di mercato”. Definiamo questo tipo di strategia “Sviluppo 1.0”. I paesi che vi aderirono ottennero un grande profitto attraverso una politica di investimenti, che fu poi tuttavia seguito da una serie di crisi e dalla stagnazione.

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