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La crescita in un periodo di caos

FORT LAUDERDALE, FLORIDA – I Paesi in via di sviluppo stanno affrontando ostacoli importanti – sui quali, nella maggior parte dei casi, hanno poco o nessun controllo – per raggiungere una forte crescita sostenuta. Al di là delle conseguenze negative generate da una crescita lenta dell’economia avanzata e da condizioni finanziarie e monetarie anormali, ci sono gli effetti dirompenti della tecnologia digitale, che corroderà il vantaggio comparativo delle economie in via di sviluppo nelle attività manifatturiere ad alta intensità di lavoro. Considerando tale inversione di tendenza, l’adattamento è l’unica opzione.

La robotica ha già fatto significativi progressi nell’assemblaggio di componenti elettroniche,  mentre il settore tessile, primo punto di entrata di molti Paesi nel sistema commerciale globale, sarà il prossimo. Dal momento che questo trend continua, l’imperativo di costruire catene di fornitura basate sulla localizzazione di lavoro efficiente dal punto di vista dei costi e relativamente immobile svanirà, con una produzione che si avvicina sempre di più al mercato finale. Adidas, ad esempio, sta già costruendo uno stabilimento in Germania, dove i robot produrranno scarpe atletiche  di lusso e sta pianificando di aprirne un altro negli Stati Uniti.

Date queste premesse, i Paesi in via di sviluppo hanno bisogno di agire ora per adattare le loro strategie di crescita. Un quadro normativo ragionevole deve tener conto di diversi fattori chiave.

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