Lucas Schifres/Getty Images

危机时代的增长

发自佛罗里达州劳德代尔堡——发展中国家的持续高增长目标如今面临着多项重大障碍——其中许多他们基本上是无力破除的。除了发达经济体增长缓慢以及危机后货币和金异常情况之外,还有数字技术所带来的破坏性影响,而这将削弱发展中国家在劳动密集型制造业方面的比较优势。由于上述趋势都是不可逆转的,因此适应是唯一的选择。

机器人技术在电子装配业已经实现了长足的发展,而缝纫行业——一直以来都是很多国家加入全球贸易体系的敲门砖——则可能是下一个目标。随着这种趋势持续,逐渐地也没什么必要将供应链安置在位置相对固定且具备成本效益的劳动力聚集区周围,而是向终端市场靠拢。比如阿迪达斯就已经在德国建厂并安装生产高档运动鞋的机器人生产线,同时计划在美国开设第二家。

有鉴及此,发展中国家需要立即采取行动调整自身增长战略。而制定一个合理框架则必须考虑下列几个关键因素:

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/h7IGdNT/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now