Chinese Economy VCG/Getty Images

Мир наизнанку

НЬЮ-ХЕЙВЕН – Медленно, но верно, потрёпанная мировая экономика начала, кажется, поправляться после глубокой посткризисной болезни. Если свежие прогнозы Международного валютного фонда сбудутся (это, конечно, сомнительное предположение), в течение 2017-2018 годов среднегодовые темпы роста мирового ВВП составят 3,6%, что станет небольшим подъёмом после роста на 3,2% в год течение двух прошедших лет. Спустя ровно десятилетие после Великого финансового кризиса глобальный рост, наконец, вернётся на свою траекторию роста 3,5% ежегодно, наблюдаемую после 1980 года.

Однако этот возврат вряд ли свидетельствует о том, что мир вернулся к норме. Наоборот, популярные рассуждения о «новой норме» в мировой экономике упускают из вида экстраординарную трансформацию динамики глобального роста за последние пять лет.

Наблюдаемое оживление сконцентрировано, главным образом, в развитых странах, где в течение 2017-2018 годов рост ВВП, как сейчас ожидается, составит в среднем 2%. Это существенный подъём после беспрецедентно анемичных средних темпов роста на 1,1% в течение предыдущих девяти лет. По прогнозам, сравнительно сильные показатели в США (2,4%) будет компенсированы слабыми результатами Европы (1,7%) и, конечно, Японии (0,9%). Тем не менее, годовые темпы роста в развитых странах будут и дальше, согласно прогнозам, значительно отставать от долгосрочной тенденции роста на 2,9% в год, зафиксированной в период 1980-2007 гг.

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