Chinese Economy VCG/Getty Images

Verkehrte Welt

NEW HAVEN – Langsam aber sicher scheint eine angeschlagene und ramponierte Weltwirtschaft ihre tiefe Schwächephase nach der Krise hinter sich zu lassen. Wenn sich die jüngsten Prognosen des Internationalen Währungsfonds erhärten – was freilich unsicher ist – würde das für 2017-2018 erwartete durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstum des weltweiten BIP von beinahe 3,6 Prozent einen bescheidenen Anstieg des Wertes der letzten zwei Jahre von 3,2 Prozent darstellen. Ein ganzes Jahrzehnt nach der großen Finanzkrise kehrt das weltweite Wachstum endlich zu seinem Trend von 3,5 Prozent der Jahre nach 1980 zurück.

Doch diese Entwicklung signalisiert kaum, dass die Welt wieder im Normalzustand angekommen ist. Im Gegenteil: die hochgespielte Vorstellung eines „neuen Normalzustandes“ der Weltwirtschaft lässt einen außergewöhnlichen Wandel der weltweiten Wachstumsdynamik in den letzten neun Jahren völlig außer Acht.

Im Grunde haben sich die Fortschritte der letzten Zeit auf die Industrieländer konzentriert, wo man derzeit mit einem BIP-Wachstum von durchschnittlich 2 Prozent für 2017-2018 rechnet – einer durchaus bedeutsamen Steigerung angesichts des beispiellos anämischen Wachstums von 1,1 Prozent in den vorangegangenen 9 Jahren. Die relative Stärke in den Vereinigten Staaten (2,4 Prozent) wird voraussichtlich von der Schwäche sowohl in Europa (1,7 Prozent) als auch natürlich in Japan (0,9 Prozent) aufgehoben. Dennoch rechnet man damit, dass das jährliche Wachstum in den Industrieländern erheblich unter dem in den Jahren 1980-2007 verzeichneten Trend von 2,9 Prozent bleiben wird.

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