Chinese Economy VCG/Getty Images

颠倒的世界

纽黑文—千疮百孔、奄奄一息的全球经济现在表现出缓慢但确然的走出深度危机后萎靡的迹象。如果国际货币基金组织(IMF)的最新预测成为现实——老实说只是有可能——2017—2018年世界GDP平均每年增长近3.6%,那么将比前两年的3.2%略有提高。金融大危机过去整整十年后,全球增长终于回到了3.5%的20世纪80年代后趋势。

但这场往返旅程很难说预示着世界回归常态。相反,世界经济的“新常态”思想可能言过其实,它忽略了过去九年全球增长动态的一个反常的转变。

在边际上,最近的改善集中在发达经济体,目前它们的2017—2018年预期平均GDP增长率为2%——比此前九年平均每年1.1%的前所未有的萎靡水平着实有所提高。其中美国相对强势(2.4%),但预计将受到欧洲(1.7%),当然还有日本日本(0.9%)的拖累。但是,发达经济体年增长率预计仍见显著低于1980—2007年间2.9%的长期趋势。

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