Drain at construction site

Как остановить отток капитала из развивающихся стран

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – В этом году развивающиеся страны готовятся к серьёзному замедлению темпов экономического роста. По данным доклада ООН «Мировое экономическое положение и перспективы на 2016 год», средний темп роста экономики в этих странах составил в 2015 году всего лишь 3,8%. Это самый низкий показатель со времён мирового финансового кризиса в 2009 году; а в этом столетии их можно сравнить лишь с показателями рецессии 2001 года. При этом важно помнить, что замедление экономики в Китае и глубокая рецессия в Российской Федерации и Бразилии лишь частично объясняют столь резкое снижение темпов роста.

Да, действительно, уменьшение спроса на природные ресурсы в Китае (на долю которого приходится почти половина мирового спроса на базовые металлы) стало одной из важнейших причин резкого падения цен на сырьевые товары, что сильно ударило по многим развивающимся странам в Латинской Америке и Африке. Более того, в докладе ООН перечислены 29 стран, которые, скорее всего, серьёзно пострадают от замедления экономики в Китае. Между тем, падение цен на нефть более чем на 60% с июля 2014 года подорвало перспективы экономического роста в странах-экспортёрах нефти.

Однако реальное беспокойство вызывает даже не столько падение сырьевых цен, сколько масштабный отток капитала. В период 2009-2014 годов развивающиеся страны совокупно получили чистый приток капитала в размере $2,2 трлн. Частично это было вызвано политикой количественного смягчения в развитых странах, где процентные ставки опустились почти до нуля.

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