Drain at construction site

Estancar a fuga de capitais nos países em desenvolvimento

NOVA IORQUE – Os países em desenvolvimento estão este ano a preparar-se para um forte abrandamento. De acordo com o relatório Situação e Perspectivas Económicas Mundiais em 2016da ONU, o seu crescimento médio não passou dos 3,8% em 2015: a taxa mais reduzida desde a crise financeira global em 2009 e apenas igualada, neste século, pelo recessivo ano de 2001. E o que é importante ter em mente é que o abrandamento da China e as profundas recessões na Federação Russa e no Brasil apenas explicam parte da queda generalizada do crescimento.

É verdade que a quebra na procura de recursos naturais pela China (que é responsável por perto de metade da procura global por metais de base) tem tido muito a ver com as acentuadas quedas nos seus preços, que atingiram profundamente muitas economias emergentes e em desenvolvimento na América Latina e em África. De facto, o relatório da ONU refere 29 economias que terão probabilidade de ser grandemente afectadas pelo abrandamento da China. E o colapso dos preços do petróleo, superior a 60% desde Julho de 2014, abalou as perspectivas de crescimento dos exportadores de petróleo.

A verdadeira preocupação, contudo, não reside apenas na queda dos preços das mercadorias, mas também nas maciças saídas de capital. Entre 2009 e 2014, os países em desenvolvimento receberam, no seu conjunto, entradas líquidas de capital de 2,2 biliões de dólares, em parte devido à flexibilização quantitativa nas economias avançadas, que empurrou as suas taxas de juro quase até zero.

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