Drain at construction site

En finir avec les fuites de capitaux dans les pays en développement

NEW YORK – Les pays en développement se préparent à un ralentissement important cette année. Selon le rapport de l'ONU Situation économique mondiale et perspectives 2016, leur croissance s’est élevée en moyenne à seulement 3,8% en 2015 – le taux le plus bas depuis la crise financière mondiale de 2009 et égalé dans ce siècle uniquement par l'année de récession de 2001. De plus, ce qui est important de garder à l'esprit est que le ralentissement en Chine et les récessions profondes en cours dans la Fédération de Russie et au Brésil n'expliquent qu’une partie de la vaste atténuation de la croissance.

Certes, la baisse de la demande de ressources naturelles en Chine (qui représente près de la moitié de la demande mondiale pour les métaux de base) a largement contribué à la forte chute des leurs prix, qui a porté un gros coup à de nombreux pays en développement et économies émergentes en Amérique latine et en Afrique. En effet, le rapport de l'ONU énumère 29 économies qui sont susceptibles d'être durement touchées par le ralentissement de la Chine. Et l'effondrement des prix du pétrole de plus de 60% depuis juillet 2014 a érodé les perspectives de croissance des exportateurs de pétrole.

Le vrai souci, cependant, n’est pas seulement la baisse des prix des matières premières, mais aussi les sorties de capitaux massives. Au cours de la période 2009-2014, les pays en développement ont reçu collectivement une entrée nette de capitaux de 2,2 trillions de dollars, en partie en raison de l'assouplissement quantitatif dans les pays avancés, qui ont poussé les taux d'intérêt proche de zéro dans ces pays.

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