Dean Rohrer

发展中国家和全球危机

纽约——今年可能是二战以来世界经济最糟糕的一年,世界银行估计世界经济将下滑高达2%。即使那些没有犯任何错误的发展中国家(而且它们的宏观经济政策和调控政策还要远远优于美国)也受到了影响。中国经济可能继续增长,但是速度会大大放缓,远远低于这些年来每年11%-12%的增长速度,而这主要是因为出口急剧下挫。除非采取行动,危机将把另外多达两亿的人口拖入贫困之中。

这场全球危机要求我们作出全球性的应对,然而不幸的是,作出回应的责任依然只停留在国家层面。每个国家都力图让自己设计的一揽子经济刺激计划能够最大程度地造福于本国公民,而不是最大限度地影响全球经济。各国在评估经济刺激方案的规模时,都会在 本国 预算的成本和收益之间保持平衡,而这一收益是以本国的经济增幅和就业率增幅来计算的。由于一些收益(主要是在小的开放型经济体里)将会带来其他收益,这些一揽子刺激计划可能规模过小,设计也要逊色一些,这就是为什么需要全球性、相互协作的一揽子刺激计划。

这是来自联合国专家委员会关于全球经济危机的若干重要信息之一。我担任这个委员会的主席。该委员会最近向联合国提交了初步报告。

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