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Tendances démographiques et développement

WASHINGTON, DC – Il faudra, pour réaliser les ambitieux Objectifs de développement durable (ODD) – qui visent à éradiquer la pauvreté, garantir la prospérité pour tous et promouvoir la durabilité, entre aujourd’hui et 2030 – surmonter des obstacles importants, allant d’un financement suffisant pour faire face au changement climatique à la gestion de chocs macroéconomiques. Mais l’un des obstacles potentiels pourrait s’avérer être un bienfait caché, à savoir les évolutions démographiques qui interviendront dans les années à venir.

Lorsque le programme des ODD arrivera à échéance, la planète sera peuplée par quelques 8,5 milliards d’individus. En 2050 – dans 34 ans seulement – elle en comptera près de 10 milliards, soit 2,5 milliards de plus qu’aujourd’hui. A quoi ressemblera ce monde ? Où vivront toutes ces personnes supplémentaires ? Comment gagneront-elles leur vie ? Vont-elles stimuler ou peser sur les économies nationales ?

Nous pouvons, pour avoir des indices, nous reporter dans le passé, au début des années 1980. Le président américain Ronald Reagan, le dirigeant chinois Deng Xiaoping, le Premier ministre britannique Margaret Thatcher, le président français François Mitterrand et le président soviétique Mikhaïl Gorbatchev dominaient l’actualité. Les ventes des ordinateurs personnels étaient dérisoires. Et les enfants se livraient à des compétitions avec les casse-têtes Rubik’s Cube, plutôt qu’avec le jeu en réalité augmentée Pokémon Go.

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