bangladesh railway slums bangladesh railway slums

Le véritable défi démographique

LONDRES – Selon les dernières projections démographiques des Nations unies, la population du Japon devrait chuter de 127 millions de personnes à 83 millions vers 2100, et 35 pour cent d’entre elles auraient plus de 65 ans. L’Europe et d’autres économies avancées devraient également enregistrer un vieillissement de leur population en raison d’un déclin du taux de fécondité et de l’allongement de l’espérance de vie.

Mais ceux qui prédisent d’énormes problèmes économiques futurs pour les pays riches en raison du vieillissement de la population mettent l’accent sur la mauvaise question. Le vieillissement démographique est la conséquence gérable d’évolutions positives. Par contre, la croissance rapide des populations de nombreux pays pauvres continue à être une menace sérieuse pour le bien-être humain.

En 2008, les Nations unies estimaient que la population mondiale atteindrait 9,1 milliards à l’horizon 2050 et qu’elle plafonnerait à 10 milliards en 2100. Ses prévisions tablent aujourd’hui sur une population de 9,7 milliards en 2050 et de 11,2 milliards – et en augmentation constante – vers 2100, parce que le taux de fécondité de plusieurs pays a décliné moins rapidement que prévu (et qu’il a en fait augmenté, notamment en Égypte et en Algérie, depuis 2005). Alors que la population combinée de l’Asie de l’Est et du Sud-Est, des Amériques et de l’Europe devrait augmenter de 12 pour cent seulement d’ici 2050 pour ensuite décliner, la population de l’Afrique subsaharienne pourrait passer de 960 millions actuellement à 2,1 milliards en 2050 et à près de 4 milliards en 2100. Il est également prévu que la population de l’Afrique du Nord, qui s’élève aujourd’hui à 220 millions, double sur cette même période.

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