Paul Lachine

Démocratie ou finance?

LONDRES – Le « shorting » est une tactique bien connue des spécialistes de la finance. Cela revient à parier contre un actif avec de l’argent emprunté avec l’objectif de réaliser un profit lorsque sa valeur baissera.

Un spéculateur peut « shorter » un gouvernement en empruntant sa dette à son prix courant dans l’espoir de la revendre ultérieurement à un prix inférieur pour empocher la différence. Par exemple : le 1er janvier 2010, je me dis que les dés sont jetés pour les Grecs. J’emprunte à valeur faciale à Goldman Sachs 10 millions d’euros en obligations d’état 2016, qui se négocient alors à 0,91euro pour six mois. Pour cela, je dois payer Goldman Sachs le rendement qu’elle percevrait de ces obligations – autour de 5% par an à ce prix, soit environ 2,5%, ou 250 000 euros – pendant six mois.

Je vends immédiatement ces obligations sur le marché, pour 0,91 euros, je perçois donc 9,1 millions d’euros (€0,91 x €10 millions à valeur nominale). Fort heureusement, la perspective baissière se confirme en mai, alors que se confirme aussi l’ampleur des problèmes budgétaires du pays. Dès le 30 juin, date à laquelle je suis supposé rembourser les 10 millions d’euros à valeur nominale des obligations 2016 grecques à Goldman Sachs, l’obligation ne se négocie qu’aux alentours de 0,72 euro. Donc je rentre sur le marché, j’achète 10 millions d’euros à une valeur nominale de 0,72 euros, soit 7,2 millions d’euros, et rends les certificats d’obligations à Goldman Sachs comme convenu.

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