Paul Lachine

Demokracie, nebo finance?

LONDÝN – „Short selling“ neboli „prodej nakrátko“ je mezi finančními experty dobře známá metoda. Spočívá v sázení s vypůjčenými penězi proti určitému aktivu v očekávání zisku, jakmile hodnota tohoto aktiva klesne.

Spekulant může „vyshortovat“ vládu tím, že si půjčí její dluh za současnou cenu v naději, že ho později prodá za cenu nižší a rozdíl si ponechá. Příklad: prvního ledna 2010 si pomyslím, že Řekové půjdou brzy ke dnu. Na šest měsíců si tedy od banky Goldman Sachs půjčím řecké vládní dluhopisy splatné v roce 2016 v nominální hodnotě 10 milionů eur, které se v té době obchodují za 0,91 eura. Za to musím bance zaplatit výnos, který by z tohoto dluhopisu za šestiměsíční období získala – je to zhruba 5% z nominální hodnoty za rok, tedy 2,5% za půl roku, tedy 250 000 eur.

Získaný dluhopis okamžitě na trhu prodám za 0,91 eura, takže získám 9,1 milionu eur (0,91 krát nominální hodnota 10 milionů). V květnu vyjde naštěstí pro mě najevo plný rozsah fiskálních problémů Řecka a moje „medvědí“ očekávání se naplní. Třicátého června, kdy mám řecké dluhopisy v nominální hodnotě 10 milionů eur splatné v roce 2016 vrátit bance Goldman Sachs, se již tyto dluhopisy obchodují jen asi za 0,72 eura. Vstoupím tedy na trh, koupím za 0,72 eura dluhopisy v desetimilionové nominální hodnotě, takže za ně zaplatím 7,2 milionu eur, a podle dohody je vrátím bance Goldman Sachs.

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