Paul Lachine

الديمقراطية أو المال؟

لندن ـ إن "البيع على المكشوف" تكتيك معروف بين خبراء المال. وهو يعني المراهنة على أصل ما بأموال مقترضة على أمل تحقيق ربح عندما تنخفض قيمته.

ويستطيع المضارب أن "يبيع" حكومة على المكشوف باقتراض ديونها بسعرها الحالي، على أمل بيعها في وقت لاحق بسعر أدنى وتحصيل الفارق. على سبيل المثال: في الأول من يناير/كانون الثاني 2010، رأيت كمضارب أن اللعبة سوف تنتهي قريباً بالنسبة لليونان. فاقترضت بالقيمة الاسمية عشرة ملايين يورو من سندات الحكومة اليونانية لعام 2016، والتي كانت آنذاك تحت التداول بسعر 0.91 يورو، من جولدمان ساكس لستة أشهر. ولكي أتم هذا يتعين علي أن أدفع لجولدمان ساكس العائد الذي سوف تحصل عليه من السندات ـ نحو 5% سنوياً بذلك السعر، أي نحو 2.5%، أو 250 ألف يورو ـ خلال فترة الستة أشهر.

ثم أبيع على الفور ذلك السند في السوق، بسعر 0.91 يورو، أي أنني سأحصل على 9.1 مليون يورو. ومن حسن الحظ أن نظرتي الهبوطية أتت أُكُلها في شهر مايو/أيار، عندما اتضح المدى الكامل للمشاكل المالي التي تعاني منها البلاد. وبحلول الثلاثين من يونيو/حزيران، عندما يستحق عليّ إعادة الملايين العشرة لجولدمان ساكس بالقيمة الاسمية للسندات اليونانية في عام 2016، يكون سعر تداول السند قد هبط إلى نحو 0.72 يورو فقط. وما عليّ آنذاك إلا أن أذهب إلى السوق لشتري عشرة ملايين يورو بالقيمة الاسمية الحالية للسند (0.72 يورو)، أي 7.2 مليون يورو، ثم أعيد شهادات السند إلى جولدمان ساكس وفقاً لاتفاقنا.

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