¿Adiós a las armas nucleares?

BERLÍN – Como lo han demostrado recientemente las cumbres de las Naciones Unidas y Washington, el desarme y el control de armas nucleares se encuentran entre los principales temas de la agenda política mundial. Es probable que en el futuro inmediato lo sigan siendo. En efecto, en 2010 se determinará si la visión del presidente estadounidense, Barack Obama, de un mundo sin armas nucleares continuará siendo una esperanza lejana pero viable o deberá abandonarse.

Nadie debe hacerse ilusiones. Aunque todos los Estados con armas nucleares del mundo adopten la visión de un mundo libre de la amenaza de un conflicto nuclear, las armas nucleares seguirán con nosotros durante dos décadas por lo menos, e incluso ello requeriría de las condiciones más favorables para el desarme.

Este año es de una importancia crucial. El acuerdo firmado a principios de abril en Praga entre Rusia y los Estados Unidos sobre la reducción de armas nucleares estratégicas y posiblemente sobre nuevos recortes se acompañó de la publicación del informe Nuclear Posture Review que identifica la capacidad nuclear que la administración Obama desea preservar para los próximos cuatro años. La conferencia de evaluación del Tratado de No Proliferación Nuclear empezará con la tarea de adaptar el TNP a nuestro mundo que cambia rápidamente. Muchos encargados del diseño de las políticas esperan que en 2010 haya más claridad respecto de los programas nucleares de Corea del Norte e Irán.

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