Abschied von den Kernwaffen?

BERLIN: Wie jüngst der UNO-Gipfel und auch das Gipfeltreffen in Washington gezeigt haben, gehören nukleare Rüstungskontrolle und Abrüstung zu den Topthemen auf der weltpolitischen Tagesordnung. Das dürfte auf absehbare Zeit so bleiben. Tatsächlich wird sich 2010 entscheiden, ob US-Präsident Barack Obamas Vision einer kernwaffenfreien Welt eine ferne, aber erreichbare Hoffnung bleibt oder aufgegeben werden muss.

Niemand sollte sich Illusionen machen: Selbst wenn sich weltweit alle Kernwaffenstaaten die Vision einer Welt frei von der Bedrohung eines nuklearen Konflikts zu Eigen machten, würden uns die Kernwaffen für mindestens zwei Jahrzehnte erhalten bleiben, und selbst das würde besonders günstige Abrüstungsbedingungen erfordern.

Das laufende Jahr ist von zentraler Bedeutung. Einher mit der Unterzeichnung des Vertrages zwischen Russland und den USA über die Verringerung strategischer Kernwaffen sowie ggf. weiterer Reduzierungen Anfang April in Prag ging die Veröffentlichung des US Nuclear Posture Review, der die Nuklearkapazitäten aufführt, die die Obama-Administration für die nächsten vier Jahre erhalten möchte. Die UNO-Überprüfungskonferenz zum Atomwaffensperrvertrag wird ihre Arbeit aufnehmen, den Sperrvertrag an unsere sich schnell verändernde Welt anzupassen. Viele Politiker hoffen zudem, dass das Jahr 2010 Klarheit in Bezug auf die nordkoreanischen und iranischen Nuklearprogramme bringen wird.

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