Un Adieu aux armes nucléaires?

BERLIN – Comme l’ont démontré les récents sommets des Nations Unies et de Washington, le contrôle et le désarmement des armes nucléaires sont des dossiers majeurs dans l’ordre du jour politique mondial. Et ce pour encore un certain temps. C’est en effet en 2010 que devrait se décider si la vision de Barack Obama d’un monde sans arme nucléaire demeurera un espoir distant mais néanmoins accessible ou si elle doit être abandonnée.

Personne ne devrait se bercer d’illusions. Même si tous les états dotés de l’arme nucléaire embrassent la vision d’un monde libéré de la menace nucléaire, les armes nucléaires demeureront une réalité pour encore au moins une vingtaine d’année, dans le meilleur des cas, et moyennant des conditions optimales en faveur du désarmement.

Cette année sera déterminante. L’accord signé au début du mois d’avril à Prague entre la Russie et les Etats-Unis sur la réduction des armes nucléaires, et sur l’éventualité de coupes supplémentaires, était accompagné de la publication du Rapport sur la position nucléaire américaine (US Nuclear Posture Review), indiquant la capacité nucléaire que l’administration Obama désire préserver pour les quatre prochaines années. La conférence de révision du Traité de non-prolifération nucléaire (TNP) aura pour tâche d’adapter le Traité à notre monde changeant. De nombreux responsables politiques espèrent que 2010 apportera des éclaircissements sur les programmes nucléaires Nord Coréen et Iranien.

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