El noreste de Asia, al borde del precipicio

TOKIO – La negativa de Rusia a asistir a la cumbre de este año con Japón y Corea del Sur tal como estaba programado se produce en un momento difícil para los tres países. Si bien Asia es la región más dinámica del mundo, tiene una escasez de mecanismos institucionales para resolver -o al menos mitigar- las disputas internacionales como las que están agudizando la tensión en toda la región. Dado que las cumbres trilaterales que hoy en día son anuales ofrecen una verdadera esperanza para crear un diálogo institucionalizado entre los "Tres Grandes" del noreste de Asia, la renuencia de China a participar este año no es un buen presagio. 

Por supuesto, las cumbres internacionales normalmente son una buena ocasión para que los países firmen acuerdos, no para las negociaciones duras que pueden empezar a mejorar las relaciones entre unos y otros. Pero si China, Japón y Corea del Sur se hubieran reunido en un momento de creciente tensión entre los tres países, los tres líderes podrían haber aprovechado el momento para mejorar la estabilidad estratégica en todo el noreste de Asia. Por el contrario, quizás ahora las tensiones sigan enconándose.

El primer paso para poner las relaciones en una condición más estable es que cada líder admita -y se lo deje en claro a sus ciudadanos- la interdependencia cada vez mayor entre las tres economías. El comercio, la inversión y las cadenas de producción hoy vinculan a China, Japón y Corea del Sur como nadie podría haber imaginado hace 20 años. Tal como ha demostrado la historia europea desde 1945, los intereses económicos compartidos pueden ofrecer una base sólida desde donde construir la seguridad regional y abrir el camino para reconciliaciones históricas.

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