La desactivación del arma de los energéticos de Irán

Al igual que Corea del Norte, el gobierno iraní no va a retroceder ante una confrontación provocada por su programa nuclear. ¿Por qué habría de hacerlo? Un arma nuclear es la mayor garantía de que Estados Unidos nunca le hará a Irán lo que le hizo a Iraq. Además, esta lucha con los Estados Unidos reúne un apoyo interno muy necesario.

Entonces, ¿qué puede hacer Estados Unidos para debilitar la postura de Irán? En su carácter de cuarto exportador mundial de petróleo, Irán se ha beneficiado enormemente de la triplicación de los precios mundiales del petróleo en los últimos cuatro años. Su estabilidad económica depende de los ingresos del petróleo, así que esa es la vulnerabilidad de los dirigentes iraníes.

Los diplomáticos estadounidenses nunca van a persuadir al Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU de que imponga sanciones a las exportaciones de petróleo de Irán. Pero la administración Bush puede buscar la forma de limitar los precios globales de los energéticos –y debería empezar por rehusarse a caer en tensiones crecientes cada vez que le plazca al Presidente iraní Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

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