Как обезвредить «нефтяное оружие» Ирана

Подобно Северной Корее правительство Ирана не станет уклоняться от конфронтации в связи со своей ядерной программой. Да и зачем? Ядерное оружие является наилучшей гарантией того, что Соединенные Штаты никогда не сделают с Ираном то, что сделали с Ираком. Более того, эта борьба с США приносит иранскому правительству столь необходимую поддержку внутри страны.

Что же в таком случае могут сделать США, чтобы подорвать позиции Ирана? Как четвертый по величине экспортер нефти в мире Иран извлек значительную прибыль из повышения цен на нефть в три раза в течение последних четырех лет. Его экономическая стабильность зависит от доходов от добычи нефти, так что именно это и является уязвимым местом иранского правительства.

Американским дипломатам никогда не удастся убедить Совет безопасности ООН установить санкции на экспорт энергоносителей из Ирана. Но администрация Буша может найти способы сдержать рост мировых цен на энергоносители – и должна начать с отказа поддаваться на провокации иранского президента Махмуда Ахмадинежада, приводящие к обострению отношений с Ираном.

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