Die Entschärfung der iranischen Ölwaffe

So wie Nordkorea wird auch die iranische Regierung nicht vor einer Kraftprobe über ihr Nuklearprogramm zurückschrecken. Warum sollte sie auch? Eine Nuklearwaffe ist die ultimative Garantie dafür, dass die Vereinigten Staaten mit dem Iran nie werden machen können, was sie gegenüber dem Irak taten. Darüber hinaus sorgt der Streit mit den USA für dringend benötigte Unterstützung zu Hause.

Was also können die USA tun, um die Stellung des Iran zu untergraben? Als viertgrößter Ölexporteur der Welt hat der Iran enorm von der Verdreifachung der weltweiten Ölpreise während der vergangenen vier Jahre profitiert. Seine wirtschaftliche Stabilität ist von den Öleinnahmen abhängig; hier sind die iranischen Herrscher deshalb verletzlich.

Die amerikanische Diplomatie wird den UN-Sicherheitsrat nie überzeugen können, Sanktionen gegen die iranischen Energieexporte zu verhängen. Aber die Bush-Administration kann nach Wegen suchen, um die weltweiten Energiepreise unter Kontrolle zu halten – und ein erster Schritt sollte dabei sein, sich nicht zu einer Verschärfung der Spannungen verleiten zu lassen, wann immer dem iranischen Präsidenten Mahmoud Ahmadinejad der Sinn danach steht.

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