Le pétrole, talon d’Achille du régime iranien

Comme la Corée du Nord, l’Iran n’hésitera pas à aller jusqu’à la confrontation pour défendre son programme nucléaire. C’est en effet pour les dirigeants iraniens la meilleure garantie que les Etats-Unis ne feront pas à leur pays ce qu’ils ont fait à l’Irak. De surcroît, ce conflit avec les Etats-Unis leur permet de s’assurer un soutien national dont ils ont bien besoin.

Dans ces conditions, comment les Etats-Unis peuvent-il ébranler la position iranienne ? Quatrième exportateur mondial de pétrole, l’Iran a grandement profité de la hausse des cours depuis quatre ans. Sa stabilité économique dépend des revenus du pétrole, et c’est là son talon d’Achille.

Les diplomates américains ne persuaderont pas le Conseil de sécurité des Nations Unies d’imposer des sanctions sur les exportations énergétiques. Mais le gouvernement Bush peut essayer de maîtriser les cours, et il devrait commencer par refuser de mordre aux hameçons que tend le Président Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pour faire monter la tension quand bon lui semble.

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