通缩之忧?

坎布里奇——美国和其他一些主要国家的通货膨胀率现在接近为零。《经济学人》最近报道说,他们所调查的经济学家们预测美国和日本的消费价格水平在2009年实际上将会总体下降,欧元区的通胀率则将仅为0.6%。韩国,台湾和泰国也会出现消费价格水平下降。

价格下降的前景反映出工业生产的崩溃,随之而来的高失业率,以及商品价格的急剧下降。在负通胀的国家,工业生产正以两位数的速度下降,所有商品的价格指数同比都下降了超过30%。

通货紧缩可能将会是一个非常严重的问题,因为下降的价格,以及价格会继续下降的预期将会导致现在的经济衰退以三种不同的方式恶化。

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