Japan deflation Bloomberg | Getty Images

Призрак дефляции

БРЮССЕЛЬ – Центральные банки всех развитых стран были охвачены страхом дефляции. Они не должны быть напуганы: страх необоснован, а одержимость им разрушительна.

Образцом воплощения этого страха является Япония. Несколько десятилетий (мягкого) падения цен, в 2013 году вынудили Банк Японии предпринять беспрецедентное валютное наступление. Но, в то время как общая инфляция на некоторое время увеличилась, факторы, управляющие этим ростом – конкурентное снижение курса иены и повышение налогов – долго не продержались. В настоящее время, страна вновь скатывается к почти такому же уровню дефляции – момент, который особо выделяют охваченные паникой заголовки.

Но, в отличие от впечатления, созданного СМИ, японская экономика далека от агонии. Практически исчезла безработица; уровень занятости продолжает достигать новых высот; располагаемый доход на душу населения неуклонно растет. На самом деле, даже во время, так называемых “потерянных десятилетий” Японии, доход на душу населения вырос на столько же, как и в Соединенных Штатах и Европе, также вырос уровень занятости населения, предполагающий, что дефляция не может быть настолько отрицательной, как, по-видимому, полагают центральные банки.

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