Japan deflation Bloomberg | Getty Images

Strašák deflace

BRUSEL – Centrální banky v celém rozvinutém světě svírá strach z deflace. Zbytečně: tento strach je nepodložený a posedlost deflací škodlivá.

Ukázkovým příkladem tohoto strachu je Japonsko. Několik desetiletí (mírně) klesajících cen přimělo v roce 2013 japonskou centrální banku k zahájení nevídané měnové ofenzívy. Celková inflace se sice na nějakou dobu zvýšila, avšak faktory, které tento růst podnítily – konkurenční znehodnocení jenu a zvýšení daní –, netrvaly dlouho. Dnes země sklouzává zpět do stavu blízkého deflaci – což zpanikařené novinové titulky náležitě zdůrazňují.

Navzdory obrazu, který vytvářejí mediální zprávy, však japonská ekonomika zdaleka neskomírá. Nezaměstnanost prakticky vymizela, míra zaměstnanosti dosahuje nových a nových maxim a disponibilní příjem na obyvatele setrvale stoupá. I během takzvaných japonských „ztracených dekád“ rostl příjem na obyvatele stejně jako ve Spojených státech a v Evropě a míra zaměstnanosti se zvyšovala, což naznačuje, že deflace nemusí být tak ohavná, jak se centrální bankéři zjevně domnívají.

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