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通缩鬼怪

布鲁塞尔—发达世界的中央银行被通缩恐慌压得喘不过气来。本不应该如此:这一恐慌没有根据,沉溺于此十分危险。

日本是通缩恐慌的典型代表。2013年,几十年的物价(温和)下跌促使日本银行采取了前所未有的货币攻势。但尽管标题通胀一度上升,推动这一上升的因素——日元竞争性贬值和增税——并不持久。如今,日本又回到了接近通缩的状态——慌张的标题纷纷大力报道。

但是,与媒体报道所营造的印象相反,日本经济离行将就木还有十万八千里。失业几乎不存在;就业率不断创出新高;人均可支配收入稳步上升。事实上,即使在日本所谓的“失去的几十年”期间,人均收入增长也与美国和欧洲相当,而就业率的增加表明通缩也许并不像央行行长们所认为的那样可恶。

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