chinas leadership Stephen Shaver/ZumaPress

中国面临市场

美国剑桥—人们常常用单路思维看待中国当下的经济颓势:政府没有让市场运转起来。但这个角度让外国观察者误读了今年汇率和股市的一些最重要的发展态势。

诚然,中国当局用各种方式进行了强力干预。从2004年到2013年,中国人民银行购入了数万亿美元的外汇储备,从而防止人民币升值幅度大于自由浮动的情形。最近,当局拿出了所有政策手段,徒劳地试图缓和今年夏天的股价暴跌。

但被外国人指责为政府干预的后果的一些重要发展态势其实正好相反。最重要的证据是8月11日人民币兑美元贬值——这一动作让人们想起了美国政客的古老格言,“小心许愿。”贬值——必须指出,幅度只有3%——反映了人民银行政策的变化。人民银行想增加市场对汇率的影响。此前,人民银行允许人民币价值日内波动2%,但一般不允许第二天继续累积前一天的波动。如今,每天的收盘汇率将影响第二天的汇率,即向市场水平的调整。

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