Civilians fleeing in the countryside of Raqqa The Washington Post

Cortar el flujo de combatientes a ISIS

FRIBURGO, ALEMANIA – La caída de Alepo el mes pasado bajo las fuerzas del presidente sirio Bashar al-Assad (con apoyo de Rusia), reanimó la discusión sobre si será posible poner fin a la guerra civil. Pese al reciente armisticio general entre las fuerzas de Assad y la mayoría de los grupos rebeldes (del que Turquía y Rusia son garantes), casi todos coinciden en que el fin del conflicto aún está lejos. Después de todo, Estado Islámico (ISIS) no acordó nada y no va a hacerlo.

Que la guerra en Siria no terminará hasta que ISIS sea derrotado es totalmente cierto. Pero la creencia (que muchos sostienen) en que la caída de Raqqa (autoproclamada capital del califato) bastará para lograr ese objetivo es un error.

Es verdad que Raqqa es, en palabras del historiador francés Jean-Pierre Filiu, “el centro de comando operativo” de los atentados terroristas de ISIS, por ejemplo el asesinato de doce personas en una feria navideña en Berlín el mes pasado, o la matanza de 39 en una discoteca de Estambul en Año Nuevo. Pero concluir, como Filiu y otros analistas, que la caída de Raqqa es la clave para poner fin a los atentados en Europa es confundir las causas, los síntomas y las soluciones de la guerra civil siria. Si bien las perspectivas de ISIS en el corto plazo están ligadas sin duda a la suerte que corra Raqqa, es probable que la supervivencia e influencia de la milicia a largo plazo se decidan a miles de kilómetros de allí.

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