Civilians fleeing in the countryside of Raqqa The Washington Post

Как лишить ИГИЛ жизненных сил

ФРАЙБУРГ (ГЕРМАНИЯ) – Декабрьский захват Алеппо силами сирийского президента Башара Асада, поддержанного Россией, вызвал новую волну дискуссий о перспективах окончания гражданской войны в Сирии. Несмотря на недавнее, гарантированное Турцией и Россией, прекращение огня между войсками Асада и большинством групп повстанцев, многие, кажется, согласны с тем, что конфликт далек от завершения. Ведь Исламское государство (ИГИЛ) ни с кем, ни о чём не договаривалось – и не собирается.

В одном эти наблюдения верны: война в Сирии не закончится, пока не будет разгромлен ИГИЛ. Однако разделяемое многими убеждение, будто захват Ракки, самопровозглашённой столицы ИГИЛ, позволит достичь этой цели, является, честно говоря, ошибочным.

Да, Ракка является, говоря словами французского историка Жана-Пьера Филью, «оперативным командным центром» для терактов ИГИЛ, подобных убийству 12 человек на рождественской ярмарке в Берлине в декабре или убийству 39 человек в стамбульском ночном клубе в новогоднюю ночь. Однако мнение Филью и других, будто захват Ракки станет ключом к прекращению атак на Европу, смешивает причины, симптомы и методы урегулирования гражданской войны в Сирии. В реальности, хотя краткосрочные перспективы ИГИЛ, конечно, связаны с судьбой Ракки, вопрос его долгосрочного выживания и влияния будет, видимо, решаться за тысячи километров от этого города.

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