Civilians fleeing in the countryside of Raqqa The Washington Post

Die Durchtrennung der Lebensadern des IS

FREIBURG – Die Eroberung Aleppos durch die von Russland unterstützten Truppen des syrischen Präsidenten Baschar al-Assad im letzten Monat führte zu neuerlichen Diskussionen über die Aussichten, den Bürgerkrieg zu beenden. Trotz des jüngsten von der Türkei und Russland garantierten landesweiten Waffenstillstandes zwischen den Truppen Assads und den meisten Rebelleneinheiten, scheint man sich überwiegend einig zu sein, dass der Konflikt noch lange nicht vorbei ist. Schließlich hat der Islamische Staat (IS) keiner Vereinbarung zugestimmt – und er wird es auch nicht tun.

In einer Sache haben die Beobachter recht: der Krieg in Syrien wird nicht zu Ende sein, bevor der IS besiegt ist. Doch die vielerorts geäußerte Ansicht, wonach dieses Ziel mit dem Fall von Raqqa – der selbsterklärten Hauptstadt des IS – erreicht sein wird, ist, offen gesagt, falsch. 

Freilich ist Raqqa, wie es der französische Historiker Jean-Pierre Filiu formulierte, „das operative Kommandozentrum“ der IS-Terroranschläge, wie etwa der Ermordung von 12 Menschen auf einem Weihnachtsmarkt in Berlin im letzten Monat oder der Tötung von 39 Menschen in einem Istanbuler Nachtklub am Neujahrstag. Doch die Schlussfolgerung Filius und anderer, wonach der Fall von Raqqa der Schlüssel für ein Ende der Anschläge in Europa sei, vermischt Ursachen, Symptome und Lösungen des syrischen Bürgerkriegs. Obwohl die kurzfristigen Aussichten des IS natürlich mit dem Schicksal Raqqas verknüpft sind, wird das langfristige Überleben und der Einfluss des IS wahrscheinlich eher tausende Kilometer davon entfernt entschieden werden.

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