Eine neue makroökonomische Strategie

NEW YORK – Ich bin Makroökonom, aber kein Anhänger einer der beiden Hauptströmungen dieser Wissenschaft in den Vereinigten Staaten: weder der Neokeynesianer, die sich für die Steigerung der Gesamtnachfrage einsetzen, noch der Vertreter der Angebotsseite, die dafür sind, die Steuern zu senken. Beide Schulen haben versucht, die weiterhin schlechte volkswirtschaftliche Leistung der Industrieländer zu überwinden, und beide sind gescheitert. Es ist Zeit für eine neue Strategie, deren Grundlage nachhaltiges, investitionsgetriebenes Wachstum ist.

Das Hauptthema der Makroökonomie ist die bestmögliche Verteilung der Ressourcen einer Gesellschaft. Arbeitnehmer, die arbeiten wollen, müssen Arbeit finden; Produktionsstätten sollten ihr Kapital effizient einsetzen; und der Teil des Einkommens, der nicht für den Konsum ausgegeben, sondern gespart wird, muss so investiert werden, dass er das zukünftige Wohlergehen steigert.

Es ist diese dritte Herausforderung, bei der sowohl Neo-Keynesianer als auch Angebotsvertreter versagt haben. Die meisten Industrieländer mit hohem Einkommen – die USA, der größte Teil von Europa, und Japan – setzen ihre Investitionen nicht klug und angemessen für die Zukunft ein. Es gibt zwei Arten von Investitionen, in- und ausländische, und beide Arten bleiben weltweit hinter den Erwartungen zurück.

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