renminbi Jie Zhao/Getty Images

El retroceso del yuan

NUEVA YORK – En abril de 2014, The Economistdeclaró: “La globalización del yuan parece un hecho implacable e imparable”. De hecho, el uso del yuan chino o renminbí (RMB) como medio de pago internacional se duplicó entre esa fecha y agosto de 2015, llegando a un 2,8% del total, con lo que la moneda china se convirtió en la cuarta más usada del mundo.

Pero luego ese crecimiento se revirtió casi por entero. La participación del RMB en el sistema internacional de pagos se redujo a 1,6%, cayendo así al séptimo lugar. Su uso en los mercados internacionales de bonos es un 45% menor al máximo que alcanzó en 2015. Los depósitos en RMB en bancos de Hong Kong también se redujeron a la mitad. Y mientras en 2015 el 35% del comercio transfronterizo de China se saldó en RMB (y en dólares la mayor parte del remanente), esa cuota cayó a cerca del 12% en la actualidad.

Este cambio de suerte para el RMB es reflejo de cuatro factores en particular.

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