Dean Rohrer

La hora de las decisiones para la economía mundial

MILÁN – En los candentes días de verano, la ciudad de Milán se encuentra mucho más sosegada que varias otras ciudades europeas. Los lugareños están de viaje, y a diferencia de París o Roma, los turistas no los reemplazan. Aquí y en otros lugares, las personas, las empresas, los gobiernos y los mercados toman un descanso, se relajan y reflexionan. Los problemas económicos de Europa seguirán aquí, esperándonos, en septiembre.

Y cuando termine el verano, la incertidumbre sobre asuntos clave estará a la orden del día – y no sólo en Europa. En gran medida, los inesperados movimientos de protesta en Turquía y Brasil han planteado dudas sobre la sostenibilidad económica y social del crecimiento de los mercados emergentes. Los incendios en las fábricas de ropa de Bangladesh han planteado nuevas preguntas sobre la gobernanza de las cadenas de suministro mundiales.

En Estados Unidos, la Reserva Federal dejó entrever que llevaría a cabo una “disminución gradual” de su política de flexibilización cuantitativa más adelante durante el presente año, y como resultado, se empezó a propagar una especie de “carry trade” [estrategia de compraventa de divisas] a nivel mundial sobre la base de las condiciones monetarias en los países avanzados, misma que causa una contracción del crédito y turbulencias en los mercados de las economías emergentes. Probablemente, esto sea solo una muestra previa de las complejidades que conlleva la salida del modelo de crecimiento asistido posterior a la crisis, que es el modelo que prevaleció en EE.UU., Europa y ahora en Japón.  Un posible estancamiento político en EE.UU. en el mes de septiembre relativo al presupuesto y al techo de la deuda complica aún más el panorama.

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