Dean Rohrer

全球经济的决策时刻

米兰—在三伏天,米兰比其他许多欧洲城市都安静。当地人都跑出去了,米兰城也不像巴黎和罗马那样吸引游客。在米兰和其他地方,人、企业、政府和市场都在放假、减压和沉思。欧洲经济问题仍在那里,等着我们9月假毕归来。

当夏季结束时,重要的问题上的不确定性将成为主宰——不仅仅是在欧洲。土耳其和巴西出人意料的示威运动引起了对新兴市场增长和经济社会稳定的疑虑。孟加拉国制衣厂的大火引起了全球供应链管理的新问题。

在美国,美联储暗示将在下半年“减弱”其量化宽松政策,结果,以发达国家货币条件为基础的全球套息交易开始退潮,导致信用紧缩和新兴经济体的市场动荡。这可能只是一个前奏,随着美国、欧洲和现在的日本退出危机后才去的提振增长模式,复杂性将大大增加。9月,美国可能还将迎来预算和债务上限问题上的政治僵局,这让未来前景更加令人迷茫了。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/fJhNKhI/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now