L’heure des décisions a sonné pour la zone euro

ATHÈNES – Les arguments de l’Allemagne contre la création d’euro-obligations, contre l’expansion du Fonds de secours de la zone euro et la mise en place d’un système détaillé de gouvernance économique sont transparents et faciles à comprendre. Sont-ils justes pour autant ?

Les Allemands craignent que ces innovations entraînent une hausse du coût du crédit en Allemagne, et des transferts fiscaux directs et indirects vers des pays moins riches. Ils mettent également en garde contre l’aléa moral créé par le fait de venir en aide à des pays surendettés en les libérant des pressions leur demandant de mettre de l’ordre dans leurs finances. Troisièmement, ils avancent des difficultés d’ordre constitutionnel et liées aux traités de l’Union concernant l’adoption de règles et de procédures qui simuleraient une « union fiscale ». Ils estiment enfin que la nécessité de faire avancer l’unification européenne de façon à légitimer l’empiètement inévitable sur la souveraineté de pays surendettés pourrait un jour empiéter également sur la souveraineté allemande.

D’un autre côté, refuser de reconnaître le consensus croissant sur le rôle clé que jouerait une union fiscale pour résoudre la crise de la dette expose la zone euro, et l’Allemagne, à des risques sérieux. S’en tenir à des demi-mesures exacerbe l’impatience des marchés et donne lieu à des attaques spéculatives de plus en plus déterminées, pas seulement contre les pays plus faibles de la périphérie, mais également contre les pays du cour de la zone euro qui bénéficient de la note AAA – comme la France, et éventuellement l’Allemagne – dont les secteur bancaires détiennent des volumes importants de la dette des pays périphériques.

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