Stack of coins.

怎样对付债务

日内瓦—在过去几个月中,大量注意力集中到了金融市场动荡上。但股价涨落固然可怕,与这同样可怕的是,与全球经济所面临的真正威胁相比,这些涨落只是浪尖上的涟漪。巨大的债务海啸正在摧毁家庭、企业、银行和政府。如果美联储在今年年底如期开始升息,全球经济——特别是新兴市场——可能陷入严重的麻烦。

麦肯锡全球研究所的数据,自2008年雷曼兄弟公司倒闭以来,全球债务增加了大约57万亿美元,在2014年底达到了令人咋舌的199万亿美元,比全球GDP大1.5倍多。在未来几年中,维持这些债务极有可能越来越困难,特别是如果增长继续停滞而利率开始提高、出口机会依然萎靡不振、大宗商品价格崩盘之势无法挽回的话。

大量对债务的关注集中在了欧元区的违约可能上。但新兴市场的重债国可能更加危险。发展中国的公司债务据估计已经高达18万亿美元以上,其中有2万亿美元为外币债务。风险在于——如20世纪80年代的拉美和90年代的亚洲——私人部门违约将影响到公共部门资产负债表。

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