Venezuela Federico Parra/Stringer

Reestructuración de la deuda a oscuras

CAMBRIDGE – Al comenzar las reuniones anuales del Fondo Monetario Internacional y del Banco Mundial en Washington, DC, resulta conspicua la ausencia de uno de sus países miembros: Venezuela. Sin embargo, es mucho lo que se debe discutir sobre las finanzas venezolanas. De hecho, una crisis de su deuda pública parece inevitable.

Todas las crisis importantes de deuda soberana del pasado, incluso las de México y Grecia, han generado cambios en la reglamentación, la jurisprudencia o las estrategias adoptadas por deudores, acreedores e instituciones financieras internacionales. En fecha más reciente, la batalla judicial de 15 años de Argentina con sus acreedores –en la que los "holdouts" obtuvieron resultados considerablemente mejores que los acreedores que años antes aceptaran el canje– desestabilizó la arquitectura financiera internacional y generó un nuevo conjunto de reglas. Venezuela será el primer país en navegar estas nuevas reglas, y no puede darse el lujo de hacer las cosas mal.

Venezuela se encuentra en medio de una grave crisis producto de sus propios actos. El gobierno usó los años en que el precio del petróleo estaba alto, de 2004 a 2013, para quintuplicar su deuda externa, expropiar importantes sectores de la economía, e imponer draconianos controles cambiarios, laborales y de precios. En 2014, a medida que colapsaba el precio del petróleo, el gobierno, tras haber perdido el acceso a los mercados de capital como consecuencia de su despilfarro, decidió continuar sirviendo su deuda en bonos e incumplir sus obligaciones hacia los importadores y la mayor parte de sus acreedores no financieros.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/Ahu5za7/es;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.