Venezuela Federico Parra/Stringer

黑暗中的债务重组

坎布里奇——随着国际货币基金组织和世界银行华盛顿年会的召开,一个成员国的缺席非常引人瞩目:那就是委内瑞拉。但有关该国财政状况需要讨论的问题仍有很多。事实上,一场主权债务危机是不可避免的。

过去所有重大的主权债务危机——包括墨西哥和希腊主权债务危机——都曾带来过债权人、债务人和国际金融机构的规则、法理或战略变化。最近,阿根廷与债主间爆发长达十五年的法律纠纷——那些拒不合作的债权人的状况比那些数年前就接受债务交换的债权人要好很多——这场法律纠纷破坏了国际金融构架并诞生了新的规则。委内瑞拉将成为适用新规则的首个国家;这个国家承担不起搞砸的后果。

委内瑞拉如此严重的危机完全是自己造成的。政府在2004-2013年的高油价期间借了高达五倍的外债,侵占了大片经济部门,并对价格、劳动力和货币强制实行严酷的管制政策。随着2014年油价崩盘,因挥霍无度而失去资本市场借贷能力的委内瑞拉政府选择继续偿还其债券债务,但对进口商和多数非金融债权人的债务实施违约。

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