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Gestión de la deuda en un mundo excesivamente apalancado

MILÁN – ¿Qué pasó, realmente, con el desapalancamiento de la deuda? En los años que transcurrieron desde la crisis financiera mundial del 2008, austeridad y reparación del balance de resultados fueron las palabras usadas como lema en la economía mundial. Y, no obstante, hoy más que nunca, la deuda es la que impulsa las preocupaciones relativas a las perspectivas de crecimiento en todo el mundo.

El Instituto Global McKinsey, en un estudio sobre las tendencias de la deuda después de las crisis, señala que, desde el año 2008, la deuda bruta se ha incrementado en alrededor de $60 millones de millones – dicho de otra forma: alcanza un monto que representa el 75% del PIB mundial. La deuda de China, por ejemplo, se ha cuadruplicado desde el año 2007, y su ratio deuda-a-PIB se ha incrementado en alrededor del 282% – este ratio es más alto que el de muchas economías importantes, incluyéndose entre ellas la de Estados Unidos.

Una economía mundial que aumenta su apalancamiento, y que al mismo tiempo no puede generar suficiente demanda agregada para lograr un crecimiento potencial, se encuentra en un camino con riesgos. Sin embargo, para evaluar cuán riesgoso es dicho camino, se deben considerar varios factores.

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