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Schuldenmanagement in einer übermäßig verschuldeten Welt

MAILAND – Was ist eigentlich mit dem Schuldenabbau passiert? In den Jahren nach der globalen Finanzkrise von 2008 lauteten die Parolen der Weltwirtschaft „Sparmaßnahmen“ und „Bilanzen reparieren“. Und trotzdem sind heute die Schulden für die weltweiten Wachstumsaussichten mehr denn je ein Grund zur Sorge.

Das McKinsey Global Institute stellt in einer Studie über Schuldentrends der Nachkrisenzeit fest, dass die Gesamtverschuldung seit 2008 auf über 60 Billionen Dollar – oder 75% des weltweiten BIP – angestiegen ist. Die Schulden Chinas beispielsweise haben sich seit 2007 vervierfacht, und das Verhältnis der Verschuldung zum BIP beträgt etwa 282% – was höher ist als in vielen anderen großen Volkswirtschaften, einschließlich der Vereinigten Staaten.

Eine Weltwirtschaft, die ihre Fremdkapitalisierung erhöht, ohne gleichzeitig in der Lage zu sein, genug Gesamtnachfrage für potenzielles Wachstum zu generieren, ist auf einem riskanten Weg. Um aber herauszufinden, wie riskant dies tatsächlich ist, müssen wir mehrere Faktoren untersuchen:

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