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Gérer la dette dans un monde surendetté

MILAN – Qu’est-il donc advenu du désendettement ? Au cours des années qui ont suivi la crise financière mondiale de 2008, austérité et redressement des bilans constituaient les maîtres-mots de l’économie globale. Et pourtant, aujourd’hui plus que jamais, la dette suscite l’inquiétude autour des perspectives mondiales de croissance.

Dans une étude  relative aux tendances d’après-crise en matière d’endettement, le McKinsey Global Institute a révélé que la dette brute avait augmenté d’environ 60 000 milliards $ – soit l’équivalent de 75 % du PIB mondial – depuis 2008. La dette de la Chine a par exemple été multipliée par quatre depuis 2007, tandis que son ratio dette/PIB s’élève aux alentours de 282 % – au-dessus de la plupart des économies développées, États-Unis inclus.

Une économie mondiale en situation d’endettement croissant, lequel ne permet pourtant pas de générer une demande globale suffisante pour atteindre la croissance potentielle, est une économie en situation de risque. Mais lorsqu’il s’agit de déterminer le degré d’un tel risque, plusieurs facteurs doivent être pris en considération.

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