Debt overload Bloomberg/Getty Images

在一个过度杠杆的世界上管理负债

发自米兰——在去杠杆化的过程中都发生了些什么?从2008年全球金融危机至今,紧缩和资产负债表修复一直是全球经济高喊的口号。然而时至今日,债务却比以往任何时候都更加引发对全球增长前景的关注。

麦肯锡全球研究院一项针对危机后债务发展趋势的研究指出,自2008年以来全球债务总额增加了约60万亿美元——相当于全球GDP的75%。比如中国的债务自2007年以来就增加了四倍,并且其债务/GDP比率高达282%——比包括美国在内的许多其他主要经济体都要高。

一个杠杆率上升却无法产生足量总需求以实现潜在增长的全球经济相当危险的。但要评估风险有多大,就必须考虑下列几个因素。

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