Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. He is co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton University Press, 2011) and author of The Curse of Cash (Princeton University Press, 2016).
坎布里奇——刚刚达成的提高美国债务上限的临时协议并不会让问题消失。美国政治生活的一个特点就是两党就邦债务上限问题展开对峙。虽然有些人将之归咎于制定规则时考虑不周,但这种说法并没有切中问题的实质。
问题的真正根源在于,如今的政客几乎没有任何妥协的动力。选区划分不公、传统和社交媒体意识形态陷入孤立(上述状况被机器人、算法和经济动机所进一步放大)只会在可以预见的未来加剧动荡局势。这或许意味着更频繁的政府关门或对央行独立性进行更多限制。随着2024年大选后,前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普非常有望成为重返白宫的人选,谁知道还会出现什么问题。
现在的谣言是,达到债务上限将立即迫使美国陷入债务违约。政府所收取的税款足以支付债务利息,而且,债务上限也不会阻碍对到期债务进行展期。
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