Paul Lachine

Muerte por renmimbi

WASHINGTON, DC – A lo largo de las últimas semanas, la depreciación del dólar frente al euro y el yen ha acaparado la atención mundial. En un mundo normal, se debería acoger con agrado el debilitamiento del dólar, pues ayudaría a los Estados Unidos a reducir su insostenible déficit comercial, pero, en un mundo en el que China mantiene vinculada su divisa al dólar con una paridad infravalorada, la depreciación del dólar podría provocar un daño económico mundial que complicaría aún más la recuperación de la actual recesión mundial.

Hace mucho que es necesario un realiniamiento del dólar. Su supervaloración comenzó con la crisis del peso mexicano de 1994 y fue consagrada oficialmente por la política de “un dólar fuerte” adoptada después de la crisis financiera del Asia oriental de 1997. Dicha política produjo aumentos del consumo a corto plazo para los Estados Unidos, lo que explica por qué fue popular entre los políticos americanos, pero a largo plazo ha causado un importante daño a la economía de los EE.UU. y ha contribuido a la crisis actual.

El dólar supervalorado hizo que la economía de los EE.UU. tuviera una hemorragia de gasto en importaciones, puestos de trabajo mediante la contratación externa e inversión en países con divisas infravaloradas. En la actual era de la mundialización, caracterizada por redes de producción flexibles y móviles, los tipos de cambio no afectan sólo a las exportaciones y las importaciones, sino también a la localización de la producción y la inversión.

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