La depresión del hombre de Davos

NUEVA YORK – Durante 15 años he asistido al Foro Económico Mundial de Davos. Generalmente, los líderes que se reúnen ahí comparten su optimismo sobre cómo la globalización, la tecnología y los mercados están transformando al mundo para bien. Incluso durante la recesión de 2001, quienes asistieron a Davos pensaban que la desaceleración no duraría mucho.

Pero esta vez, a medida que los líderes empresariales intercambiaban sus experiencias, casi podía sentirse como se iban oscureciendo los nubarrones. Uno de los oradores captó el ambiente cuando dijo que habíamos pasado del “auge y crisis” al “auge y Armagedón”. El consenso que está surgiendo es que el pronóstico de estancamiento global –el crecimiento más lento de la posguerra– para 2009 que el FMI hizo cuando se convocó la reunión era optimista. El único comentario positivo vino de alguien que dijo que los pronósticos de Davos casi siempre son erróneos, por lo que quizá esta vez serán demasiado pesimistas.

Igualmente impactante fue la pérdida de fe en los mercados. En una muy concurrida sesión de intercambio de ideas en la que se preguntó a los participantes cuál era la principal falla que había causado la crisis, la respuesta fue casi unánime: la creencia de que los mercados se corrigen a sí mismos.

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