Die Depression des Davos-Menschen

NEW YORK – Seit 15 Jahren nehme ich am Weltwirtschaftsforum in Davos teil.  Normalerweise verleihen die dort versammelten Führungspersönlichkeiten ihrem Optimismus darüber Ausdruck, wie Globalisierung, Technologie und Märkte die Welt zum Besseren verändern. Sogar während der Rezession des Jahres 2001 glaubte man in Davos an einen kurzen Abschwung.  

Beim diesjährigen Erfahrungsaustausch der Wirtschaftsexperten war die düstere Stimmung allerdings beinahe greifbar. Ein Redner erfasste die allgemeine Stimmung, indem er meinte, dass wir uns von „Boom und Bust“ in Richtung „Boom und Armageddon“ bewegt hätten. Man war sich zunehmend einig, dass die zu Beginn des Treffens veröffentlichte IWF-Prognose für 2009, die von einer globalen Stagnation und dem niedrigsten Wachstum der Nachkriegszeit ausgeht, noch optimistisch angelegt war. Ein Teilnehmer merkte an, der einzig positive Aspekt sei, dass die Prognosen von Davos fast immer falsch seien und dass sich auch die aktuelle womöglich als übermäßig pessimistisch erweisen würde.  

Ebenso auffallend war der Vertrauensverlust in die Märkte. In einer sehr gut besuchten Brainstorming-Sitzung wurden die Teilnehmer gefragt, welche Einzelursache wohl für die Krise verantwortlich wäre. Die deutliche Antwort lautete: Der Glaube an die selbstkorrigierenden Märkte. 

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