达沃斯人的沮丧

纽约—15年来,我一直参加在达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛。通常情况下,领导者们聚集一堂,分享他们对全球化,技术和市场正如何改良世界所持有的乐观主义。即使是在2001年的衰退中,汇聚于达沃斯论坛的人们依然相信下降趋势将是短期的。

但是这次当商业领袖们分享他们的经验之时,我们可以感觉到乌云密布。一位把握了会议精神的演讲者者提出,我们已经从“繁荣与衰退”阶段进入了“繁荣与大决战”阶段。新近冒出的共识是:会议召开时国际货币基金组织就2009年全球停滞作出的预测持有乐观态度,而本轮全球停滞的经济增长率是战后以来最低的。唯一的乐观音符是有人评论达沃斯的一致预测几乎总是错误的,所以也许这次的预测可能会被证明是过于悲观了。

同样引人注目的是缺发对市场的信心。在一个参与者甚众的献计群英会中,与会者被问及到底哪一项失误得为这次危机负责,结果有个答案回响不绝:相信市场能够自我校正。

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