新兴非洲的居安思危

纽约—非洲正在发生迅速的变化——外部人士对非洲的态度亦然,而美国也最终决定紧追中国、欧洲和印度,追求在非洲大陆的利益。美国总统奥巴马与四十个非洲国家首脑和200多个美国和非洲胜业领袖的最新峰会体现了新的、信心更足的情绪。这令人欢欣鼓舞;但只要撒哈拉以南非洲诸国继续挣扎于暴力冲突、贫困和腐败之中,非洲大陆的经济潜力就无法充分实现。

非洲的经济增长和商业机会令人振奋、极具吸引力。该地区拥有多达3亿的中产阶级,并且以每年超过5%的速度增加。非洲大陆引领着移动银行的潮流。人均消费支出接近印度和中国水平。如果外国投资能够与非洲大陆极具活力的私人部门相结合下推动重要部门——特别是教育、医疗和基础设施,非洲就有可能获得其人民所需要的广泛的发展提振。

但投资和增长——“非洲崛起”——只是故事的一部分。非洲也有孱弱的一面,冲突和危机困扰着非洲大陆大部,特别是从马里到索马里一线诸国的数千万人。即使在最近的利比里亚和塞拉利昂埃博拉大爆发之前,南苏丹、中非共和国和马里都有步索马里和刚果民主共和国的后尘步入分裂和失败之国的行列。在这些国家,种族、宗教、经济和其他方面的冲突频发,使得有效治理和提供最基本服务的目标根本无从实现。

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