反思减排

海牙—不管是在联合国气候变化峰会上,还是在冲多“绿色增长”论坛上,可再生能源和能源效率一直被认为是全球变暖的解决办法。就连煤炭行业也在其于去年11月联合国COP19峰会前发布的《华沙公约》(Warsaw Communiqué)中划定了一条效率线。但如若更仔细地检视全球能源体系,并更深入地了解排放挑战,就能发现,化石燃料仍将是本世纪最主要的能量源,这意味碳捕捉和存储(CCS)才是应对气候挑战的关键技术。

人们广泛关注能源效率和可再生能源,原因在于日本经济学家茅阳一(Yoichi Kaya)1993年所提出的茅阳一恒等式。茅阳一将总人口和人均GDP、能源效率(单位GDP的能源使用量)以及碳密集度(单位能源的二氧化碳含量)相乘,就得到了二氧化碳排放量。人口管理或限制个人财富的动议显然不可能获得支持,因此基于茅阳一恒等式的分析总是剔除前两个乘数,于是能源效率和碳密集度就成了总排放量最重要的决定因素。

但这一方便的解释与现实并不相符。事实上,二氧化碳向海洋大气排放的速度比风化和海洋沉积等回到生物储存状态的速度快好几个数量级。因此,真正重要的是二氧化碳随时间排放量的累计值——这一事实可见于政府间气候变化委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)最新的第五版评估报告。

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